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Quarterly Update

We have endured so much over the last two years that we wanted to send a shorter letter than usual this quarter to simply say: thank you.

For sticking with us through Zoom meetings. For sticking to the plan when the market looks scary. For sharing your triumphs and losses with us during one of the toughest times the world has ever faced.

We are so grateful that each year since we founded Horst & Graben, over 99% of you have continued to work with us each year.

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Quarterly Update

A common topic in our newsletters these past couple of years has been how steady and positive the markets have been over this time. We have cautioned against expecting that to continue into perpetuity, and we saw a chink in the armor this past quarter. Since the first quarter of 2020 and the start of the pandemic, there had not been a single down quarter. Starting in September, we finally saw some volatility. September has consistently been the worst month for US stock returns, historically. From 1926 through 2020, it has been the only month to average negative returns. However, overall, the markets have continued their run-up. The Dow rose from 18,000 to 34,000 over the past year and a half.

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Quarterly Update

I hope this letter finds you doing well and staying cool with the recent heatwaves in the Pacific Northwest and around the country. We have just finished the second quarter of 2021, and already this year has had a great start from a return standpoint, much of which is owed to a huge upswing in GDP as the US reopens. In their midyear report, Blackrock shared this chart showing trends in GDP since just before the pandemic, as well as estimates for the next year or so. You can see how early 2020 hits a bottom for all countries, but if you were to take that data point out, the trend line is far smoother, suggesting that the pandemic has served more as an “interruption” than throwing future economic data fully off track.

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Quarterly Update

It finally seems like we are in the end stages of the pandemic, so what’s left is to figure out how this will wrap up. How will local restrictions adapt to the downturn in spread that vaccination causes, and how quickly will that happen? When will it be safe for schools to return to 100% in-person teaching, and when will kids be able to get their own vaccinations? The questions that confront us now are so much better than the fearful questions we asked ourselves at this time last year.

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Welcome to Patrick Yaghoobians!

We’ve been relieved to see the progress of vaccination steadily increase throughout the US, and particularly in Oregon, as it looks like we may at last be heading for the end of the pandemic. The vaccination rate in the US has reached 2 million doses a day, which only a couple of months ago seemed impossible. Despite the pandemic, we have been busier than ever in service to our clients, and as a result have been on the hunt for a new team member for over a year. That search ended just over a month ago when we recruited a new associate advisor.

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Quarterly Update

The second and third quarter were the best quarters for the stock market since 2009, and the significant actions of the CARES Act and the Federal Reserve’s stimulus have helped to keep this performance going. At this point, we believe economic activity is running ahead of expectations in developed countries, but at different paces depending on the virus activity and stimulus packages. We are also starting to see signs of a two-track recovery emerging, wherein some workers, companies, and regions show signs of growing stronger and others are in deep decline.

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Happy End of Summer, and a Market Update

We hope our note finds you doing well. As we are now in our sixth month of “COVID craziness,” we thought it would be a good time to reach out. It has been a busy summer at Horst & Graben. Last week, we said goodbye to our two summer interns. Elizabeth is on her way back to Gonzaga and Elaina is on her way back to SMU. We appreciate their efforts and will miss them.

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PERS Update

We hope you and yours continue to be healthy as we edge into fall. We want to send particularly good thoughts to our educators, who are working to get up to speed on the plan for this school year alongside the parents of their students!

PERS has provided some information on a couple of the recent changes we discussed in our last newsletter, with additional details to follow.

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Happy Fourth, and a Market Update

In advance of quarterly performance reports that will be coming out next week, we wanted to include an update on market performance so far this year. Since the bottom of the US stock market on March 23rd, it has been tempting to either ignore the markets entirely or spend far too much time checking performance. However, the majority of the major indices (like the S&P 500 and the DOW) have mostly recouped their earlier losses.

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May Market Update

After a barrage of newsletters in late March and early April, we thought we would give you a reprieve for a little while, but we wanted to touch base again to give you our thoughts on what we are seeing in the markets lately.

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PERS Update

While we have been primarily focusing on the impacts of COVID-19 in recent newsletters, we wanted to reach out with some updates, reminders and thoughts about PERS.

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Quarterly Update

With the first quarter behind us, we customarily send out a quarterly letter to provide an update on the markets and your portfolios along with our quarterly reports. However, with all of the uncertainty and volatility, we have made it a point to reach out much more often over the past few weeks. With that said, we will give you just a brief update and highlight some notes of positivity we have seen recently.

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The CARES Act: Changes to RMDs and Medicare

Note: This is the final installment in our newsletter series covering the many programs affected by the CARES Act. We previously covered benefits for self-employed workers and small business owners, and later sent out information regarding student loans. We want to thank you again for the great feedback we’ve received, and invite you to share this information with others who may find it helpful.

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The CARES Act: Student Loan Considerations

Note: Our email from late last week focused on the most general aspects of the CARES Act. Earlier this week, we sent out a letter focusing on small business owners, self-employed workers, and independent contractors (1099s). We will also be sending out information for Medicare recipients and folks who, by age or inheritance, are subject to RMDs (Required Minimum Distributions).

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The CARES Act: Benefits for Small Business Owners, Self-Employed Individuals, and Independent Contractors

Note: Our email from late last week focused on the most general aspects of the CARES Act. This week, we take a deeper dive into three affected groups to help them determine what benefits are out there. Today’s newsletter focuses on small business owners, self-employed workers, and independent contractors (1099s). Of other newsletters coming this week, one will focus on Federal student loan holders and their co-signors, and the other will address Medicare recipients and folks who by age or inheritance have RMDs (required minimum distributions).

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The CARES Act and You: Coronavirus Relief is Coming

A note from us: This newsletter is one of the longest we have ever sent out, but it is packed with important information that directly relates to each one of you. Please take the time to review it when you can, feel free to forward it to people who might benefit from this information, and we look forward to answering any clarifying questions we can from you or your loved ones.

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Following the Economy and Markets During Coronavirus

Of all the situations that can trigger a crisis in the market, few are as personal as this one. The past month has felt much longer, and the day-to-day volatility we have experienced has been erratic and nerve-wracking, and perhaps reflects the uncertainty we feel in our own lives, as most of us are now experiencing widespread changes to our daily routines and concern for the health of our loved ones. Our economy is threatened by the prospect of a prolonged slowdown in manufacturing and consumption due to the social distancing required to combat the coronavirus, as well as a strong impact on transportation, dining, and “luxury” goods. Our lack of specific knowledge of how long it will last and how deeply it will hit has caused the markets to act on a worst-case scenario.

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An Update on Our Office, the Markets, and Coronavirus

We hope our note finds you doing well. We wanted to follow up with you after our last letter regarding the coronavirus outbreak.

We know this is a nerve-wracking and unsettling time as an investor, but first and foremost we are reaching out to share new guidelines for our business that will protect your health and our team's health.

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It's Tax Season - Watch Out for These Scams

As we get further into tax season, ‘tis the season for financial scammers to work in earnest! Financial scams have become much more sophisticated over the past few years – gone are the days of the Nigerian prince spam email. As a result, we want to reach out with details of common scam attempts, so that you can feel confident as you go about your daily life.

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Our Thoughts on Coronavirus-Related Market Volatility

We’ve been getting a lot of questions from clients regarding the impact of coronavirus’s spread on the stock markets, and wanted to reach out and provide our take on the situation.

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